------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       log:  C:\DATA\pres_runoff_US.log
  log type:  text
 opened on:  18 May 2005, 10:54:44

.  #delimit ;
delimiter now ;
. *     ***************************************************************** *;
. *     ***************************************************************** *;
. *       File-Name:      pres_runoff_US.do                               *;
. *       Date:           5/18/05                                         *;
. *       Author:         MRG                                             *;
. *       Purpose:        Do-file to replicate additional results for     *;
. *                       AJPS version of presidential candidates paper   *;
. *                       where dependent variable is the number of       *;
. *                       presidential candidates. Here I do not exclude  *;
. *                       countries that use electoral college such as    *;
. *                       the US or countries that use STV.  The results  *;
. *                       are qualitatively similar.                      *;
. *       Input File:     presidential_new.dta                            *;
. *       Output File:    pres_runoff_US.log                              *;
. *       Data Output:    None                                            *;
. *       Previous file:                                                  *;
. *       Machine:        Home                                            *;
. *     ****************************************************************  *;
. *     ****************************************************************  *;
. set mem 10m;
(10240k)

. set matsize 150;

. use c:\ajps\presidential_new.dta;

. *     ****************************************************************  *;
. *                           Summary Statistics                          *;
. *     ****************************************************************  *;
. sum;

    Variable |       Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------
     country |         0
countrynum~r |       294    87.93197    41.47686          3        198
        year |       294    1980.588     16.4538       1946       2000
    eighties |       294    .0884354    .2844111          0          1
    nineties |       294    .2040816    .4037161          0          1
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------
         old |       294     .755102    .4307599          0          1
         cox |        17           1           0          1          1
  enpres_cox |        17    3.129412    1.107172       1.96       5.69
   eneth_cox |        17    1.642941    .7725588       1.01       3.77
      avemag |       276    10.88268     21.9662          1        150
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------
 coexistence |       294    .0204082     .141633          0          1
 conditional |       294           0           0          0          0
  correction |       294    .0170068    .1295169          0          1
      dhondt |       294    .1734694    .3792982          0          1
   districts |       277    75.43321    128.4021          1        577
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------
       droop |       294           0           0          0          0
 elec_system |         0
electorals~r |       278    2.028777    1.656156          1         12
        eneg |       252    2.021872    1.169619   1.004012   8.176613
        enep |       255    3.842745    1.869934       1.35      13.77
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------
 enep_others |       252    3.523333    8.256753          0       66.5
       enep1 |       251    4.347012    4.031235       1.35       46.1
        enpp |       271     3.17786    1.358342       1.12       8.76
 enpp_others |       261    2.320307    8.421831          0         86
       enpp1 |       261    4.114444    11.25567       1.12     178.65
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------
      enpres |       289    2.772965    1.137473          1       6.57
     ethfrac |       251    .2888048    .2518241        .01         .9
    ethfrac2 |       241     .281069    .2503868   .0021882   .8687042
    ethfracn |       251    .4360558     .257955        .01        .91
    ethkrain |       171    .3587719    .2454005        .01        .84
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------
fractional~n |       252    .3951362    .2232332    .003996      .8777
       fused |       294    .1088435    .3119738          0          1
      fusion |       294    .0034014    .0583212          0          1
        hare |       294    .2278912    .4201872          0          1
   imperiali |       294           0           0          0          0
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------
 institution |       294    2.527211     .704162          1          3
instit~n_lag |       288    2.121528    1.111778          0          3
institution2 |       279    2.530466    .7134147          1          3
instit~2_lag |       288    2.131944     1.10587          0          3
leg_altern~e |       294           0           0          0          0
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------
   leg_borda |       294           0           0          0          0
 leg_limited |       294    .0068027    .0823377          0          1
leg_majority |       294    .0612245    .2401504          0          1
leg_plural~y |       294    .1632653    .3702377          0          1
leg_qualma~y |       294           0           0          0          0
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------
  leg_runoff |       281    .1174377    .3225155          0          1
    leg_sntv |       294           0           0          0          0
     legelec |       294    .6598639    .4745625          0          1
majoritarian |       294    .1734694    .3792982          0          1
      medmag |       215    12.84651    24.88801          1        150
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------
       mixed |       294    .0578231    .2338067          0          1
mixed_depe~t |       294    .0102041    .1006699          0          1
   mod_droop |       294           0           0          0          0
    mod_hare |       294           0           0          0          0
mod_sainte~e |       294           0           0          0          0
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------
       multi |       294    .0782313    .2689931          0          1
multi_linked |       294    .0442177    .2059289          0          1
      newdem |       294    .1836735    .3878779          0          1
      number |       179    6.860335    10.75036          1         53
pres_college |       294     .085034    .2794079          0          1
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------
pres_major~y |       294    .3673469    .4829041          0          1
pres_plura~y |       294    .3673469    .4829041          0          1
pres_qualm~y |       294    .1428571    .3505237          0          1
 pres_runoff |       294    .5102041    .5007482          0          1
    pres_stv |       294     .037415       .1901          0          1
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------
    preselec |       294           1           0          1          1
proportional |       294    .3503401    .4778899          0          1
  proximity1 |       194    .9948454    .0717958          0          1
  proximity2 |       196    .9846939    .1230818          0          1
      regime |       294    .0238095    .1527153          0          1
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------
  regime_lag |       288      .15625    .3637242          0          1
  regime_leg |       294           0           0          0          0
      region |       294    7.173469    2.610136          1         10
     region1 |       294    7.078231    2.540592          1         10
reinforced~i |       294           0           0          0          0
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------
        reld |       292    .2802092    .1804728    .005982    .733386
    relfracn |       254    .2609843    .2239393        .01        .83
 saintelague |       294    .0034014    .0583212          0          1
       seats |       286    168.8986    125.8949         16        577
         stv |       294    .0068027    .0823377          0          1
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------
superposit~n |       294    .0204082     .141633          0          1
  upperseats |       278    10.10791    30.82914          0        225
   uppertier |       278    5.623741    12.23941          0      77.95
 enep_higher |       248    4.349798    4.056787       1.35      46.17
  enep_lower |       248    4.343226    4.043032       1.35      46.03
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------
 enpp_higher |       256    4.574961    17.81524       1.12     283.24
  enpp_lower |       256     3.69832    5.161631       1.12      74.05
preselecsy~m |       293     2.05802    1.088567          1          5

. *     ****************************************************************  *;
. *                    Relabel and Define Variables                       *;
. *     ****************************************************************  *;
. label var country  "countryname";

. label var newdem "first election as new democracy";

. label var countrynumber "countrynumber";

. label var year "year";

. label var regime "regime as of 31 December of given year 0=democracy 1=dictatorship";

. label var regime_leg "regime type at time of legislative election 0 = democracy 1=dictatorship";

. label var legelec "legislative election";

. label var preselec "presidential election";

. label var eighties "election in 1980s closest to 1985";

. label var old "elections in countries that did not transition to democracy in 1990s";

. label var nineties "elections in 1990s closest to 1995";

. label var proximity1 "proximity - continuous";

. label var proximity2 "proximity - dichotomous";

. label var enpp "parliamentary parties - uncorrected";

. label var enpp1 "parliamentary parties - corrected";

. label var enep "electoral parties - uncorrected";

. label var enep1 "electoral parties - corrected";

. label var enpres "effective number of presidential candidates";

. label var seats "assembly size";

. label var districts "number of electoral districts";

. label var avemag "average district magnitude";

. label var medmag "median district magnitude";

. label var upperseats "number of uppertier seats";

. label var uppertier "percentage of uppertier seats";

. label var eneg "effective number of ethnic groups  fearon";

. *     ****************************************************************  *;
. *                   Create variables ready for regressions              *;
. *     ****************************************************************  *;
. gen eneg_runoff = eneg*pres_runoff;
(42 missing values generated)

. *     ****************************************************************  *;
. *       Note that I do not drop countries that use an electoral college *;
. *       or STV to elect their president now.                            *;
. *     ****************************************************************  *;
. *     ****************************************************************  *;
. *                               1980s                                   *;
. *     ****************************************************************  *;
. regress enpres eneg pres_runoff  eneg_runoff if eighties==1, robust;

Regression with robust standard errors                 Number of obs =      22
                                                       F(  3,    18) =    5.05
                                                       Prob > F      =  0.0103
                                                       R-squared     =  0.4548
                                                       Root MSE      =  .97312

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
      enpres |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        eneg |   .0805256   .1563404     0.52   0.613    -.2479334    .4089846
 pres_runoff |    .264565   .8354462     0.32   0.755    -1.490642    2.019772
 eneg_runoff |   .5690613    .336751     1.69   0.108    -.1384263    1.276549
       _cons |   2.142992   .4799641     4.46   0.000     1.134625    3.151359
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. matrix b=e(b);

. matrix V=e(V);

. scalar b1=b[1,1];

. scalar b3=b[1,3];

. scalar varb1=V[1,1];

. scalar varb3=V[3,3];

. scalar covb1b3=V[1,3];

. scalar conb=b1+b3*1;

. display conb;
.64958688

. scalar conse=sqrt(varb1+varb3*1^2+2*covb1b3*1);

. display conse;
.29825981

. scalar t=conb/conse;

. display t;
2.1779229

. *     ****************************************************************  *;
. *           What is the effect of eneg as runoff changes in the 1980s?  *;
. *           When runoff is 0, then the effect of eneg is 0.08 (0.16)    *;
. *           When runoff is 1, then the effect of eneg is 0.65 (0.30)    *;
. *           When runoff is 1, eneg is significant at the 95% level      *;
. *     ****************************************************************  *;
. *     ****************************************************************  *;
. *                               1990s                                   *;
. *     ****************************************************************  *;
. regress enpres eneg pres_runoff eneg_runoff if nineties==1, robust;

Regression with robust standard errors                 Number of obs =      52
                                                       F(  3,    48) =    3.68
                                                       Prob > F      =  0.0182
                                                       R-squared     =  0.0861
                                                       Root MSE      =  1.1599

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
      enpres |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        eneg |  -.2212098   .1094589    -2.02   0.049    -.4412916    -.001128
 pres_runoff |  -.6031639   .5026707    -1.20   0.236    -1.613851    .4075232
 eneg_runoff |   .4075047    .141144     2.89   0.006     .1237157    .6912937
       _cons |   3.416114   .3910022     8.74   0.000     2.629951    4.202277
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. matrix b=e(b);

. matrix V=e(V);

. scalar b1=b[1,1];

. scalar b3=b[1,3];

. scalar varb1=V[1,1];

. scalar varb3=V[3,3];

. scalar covb1b3=V[1,3];

. scalar conb=b1+b3*1;

. display conb;
.18629483

. scalar conse=sqrt(varb1+varb3*1^2+2*covb1b3*1);

. display conse;
.08910883

. scalar t=conb/conse;

. display t;
2.0906439

. *     ****************************************************************  *;
. *       Effect of eneg in plurality systems is -0.22 (0.11).            *;
. *       Effect of eneg in runoff systems is 0.19 (0.09).                *;
. *       Thus, eneg is significant at 95% level when runoff=1            *;
. *     ****************************************************************  *;
. *     ****************************************************************  *;
. *       Now move on to pooled analyses                                  *;
. *     ****************************************************************  *;
. *     ****************************************************************  *;
. *                            Full Sample                                *;
. *     ****************************************************************  *;
. regress enpres eneg pres_runoff eneg_runoff, robust cluster(country);

Regression with robust standard errors                 Number of obs =     250
                                                       F(  3,    55) =    7.34
                                                       Prob > F      =  0.0003
                                                       R-squared     =  0.1117
Number of clusters (country) = 56                      Root MSE      =  1.0598

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
      enpres |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        eneg |  -.1241969   .1212665    -1.02   0.310    -.3672204    .1188266
 pres_runoff |  -.5280401   .4015452    -1.32   0.194    -1.332755    .2766746
 eneg_runoff |   .4596105   .1409574     3.26   0.002     .1771256    .7420954
       _cons |   2.890756   .3819882     7.57   0.000     2.125234    3.656277
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. matrix b=e(b);

. matrix V=e(V);

. scalar b1=b[1,1];

. scalar b3=b[1,3];

. scalar varb1=V[1,1];

. scalar varb3=V[3,3];

. scalar covb1b3=V[1,3];

. scalar conb=b1+b3*1;

. display conb;
.33541357

. scalar conse=sqrt(varb1+varb3*1^2+2*covb1b3*1);

. display conse;
.10526496

. scalar t=conb/conse;

. display t;
3.1863745

. *     ****************************************************************  *;
. *       Effect of eneg in plurality systems is -0.12 (0.12).            *;
. *       Effect of eneg in runoff systems is 0.34 (0.11).                *;
. *     ****************************************************************  *;
. *     ****************************************************************  *;
. *                       Established Democracies                         *;
. *     ****************************************************************  *;
. regress enpres eneg pres_runoff eneg_runoff if old==1, robust cluster(country);

Regression with robust standard errors                 Number of obs =     186
                                                       F(  3,    27) =    5.21
                                                       Prob > F      =  0.0057
                                                       R-squared     =  0.1533
Number of clusters (country) = 28                      Root MSE      =   1.051

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
      enpres |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        eneg |   -.117041   .1709273    -0.68   0.499    -.4677547    .2336728
 pres_runoff |  -.9656713   .5329175    -1.81   0.081    -2.059128     .127785
 eneg_runoff |   .7164563   .2280836     3.14   0.004     .2484674    1.184445
       _cons |   2.903509   .4649338     6.24   0.000     1.949543    3.857474
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. matrix b=e(b);

. matrix V=e(V);

. scalar b1=b[1,1];

. scalar b3=b[1,3];

. scalar varb1=V[1,1];

. scalar varb3=V[3,3];

. scalar covb1b3=V[1,3];

. scalar conb=b1+b3*1;

. display conb;
.59941536

. scalar conse=sqrt(varb1+varb3*1^2+2*covb1b3*1);

. display conse;
.19541301

. scalar t=conb/conse;

. display t;
3.0674281

. *     ****************************************************************  *;
. *       Effect of eneg in plurality systems is -0.12 (0.17).            *;
. *       Effect of eneg in runoff systems is 0.60 (0.20).                *;
. *     ****************************************************************  *;
. *     ****************************************************************  *;
. *                       Presidential Regimes                            *;
. *     ****************************************************************  *;
. regress enpres eneg pres_runoff eneg_runoff if institution==3, robust cluster(country);

Regression with robust standard errors                 Number of obs =     173
                                                       F(  3,    33) =    4.11
                                                       Prob > F      =  0.0140
                                                       R-squared     =  0.1695
Number of clusters (country) = 34                      Root MSE      =  .94165

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
      enpres |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        eneg |  -.0936014   .0747472    -1.25   0.219    -.2456757    .0584729
 pres_runoff |  -.8005396   .4093521    -1.96   0.059    -1.633373    .0322935
 eneg_runoff |    .586084   .2000588     2.93   0.006     .1790613    .9931067
       _cons |   2.792842    .185206    15.08   0.000     2.416037    3.169646
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. matrix b=e(b);

. matrix V=e(V);

. scalar b1=b[1,1];

. scalar b3=b[1,3];

. scalar varb1=V[1,1];

. scalar varb3=V[3,3];

. scalar covb1b3=V[1,3];

. scalar conb=b1+b3*1;

. display conb;
.49248257

. scalar conse=sqrt(varb1+varb3*1^2+2*covb1b3*1);

. display conse;
.19476594

. scalar t=conb/conse;

. display t;
2.5285868

. *     ****************************************************************  *;
. *       Effect of eneg in plurality systems is -0.09 (0.07).            *;
. *       Effect of eneg in runoff systems is 0.49 (0.19).                *;
. *     ****************************************************************  *;
. *     ****************************************************************  *;
. *                       Established Presidential Regimes                *;
. *     ****************************************************************  *;
. regress enpres eneg pres_runoff eneg_runoff if institution==3 & old==1, robust cluster(country);

Regression with robust standard errors                 Number of obs =     145
                                                       F(  3,    22) =    4.61
                                                       Prob > F      =  0.0120
                                                       R-squared     =  0.2629
Number of clusters (country) = 23                      Root MSE      =  .87045

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
      enpres |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        eneg |  -.0742514   .1240766    -0.60   0.556    -.3315705    .1830678
 pres_runoff |  -1.150788   .4667701    -2.47   0.022     -2.11881   -.1827661
 eneg_runoff |   .7636935   .2322764     3.29   0.003     .2819818    1.245405
       _cons |    2.76939   .2485363    11.14   0.000     2.253957    3.284823
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. matrix b=e(b);

. matrix V=e(V);

. scalar b1=b[1,1];

. scalar b3=b[1,3];

. scalar varb1=V[1,1];

. scalar varb3=V[3,3];

. scalar covb1b3=V[1,3];

. scalar conb=b1+b3*1;

. display conb;
.68944218

. scalar conse=sqrt(varb1+varb3*1^2+2*covb1b3*1);

. display conse;
.21145844

. scalar t=conb/conse;

. display t;
3.2604146

. *     ****************************************************************  *;
. *       Effect of eneg in plurality systems is -0.07 (0.12).            *;
. *       Effect of eneg in runoff systems is 0.69 (0.21).                *;
. *     ****************************************************************  *;
. *     ****************************************************************  *;
. *     ****************************************************************  *;
. *       As you can see, the results become even stronger when you       *;
. *       include these other countries such as the US.                   *;
. *     ****************************************************************  *;
. *     ****************************************************************  *;
. *     ****************************************************************  *;
. *     ****************************************************************  *;
. *                                   THE END                             *;
. *     ****************************************************************  *;
. *     ****************************************************************  *;
. exit;

end of do-file

.          log close
       log:  C:\DATA\pres_runoff_US.log
  log type:  text
 closed on:  18 May 2005, 10:55:47
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
